Publications

What Does Viktor Bout Know?
Foreign Policy Magazine
by Douglas Farah

Published on August 20th, 2010
It looks like the luck of Viktor Bout, one of the world's premier weapons traffickers, has finally run out. The surprise decision Friday of a Thai appellate to overturn a lower-court decision and allow Bout's extradition to stand trial in the United States on charges of trying to sell weapons to Colombian guerrillas means he should finally get his day in court.

Sustaining Deterrence on the Taiwan Strait^[1]
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 21st, 2010
While seasoned observers are identifying what may be a second “freeze” on arms sales to Taiwan, the 66 F-16C fighters the Obama Administration has not yet approved for sale to Taiwan may only constitute the very beginning of a new phase of arms sales that will be required to sustain deterrence on the Taiwan Strait through this decade.  While Taiwan, especially under the “flexible diplomacy” of President Ma Ying Jeou has sought to expand economic and political relations with China, there should be no doubt that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remains committed to achieving “unification” under their terms, a condition will continue until the CCP is removed from power in China. Until such a turn of history Taiwan’s survival as a democracy will depend on economic and political engagement with China that minimizes risks and the maintenance of a military capability that deters the CCP leadership from considering that it can secure military victory. 

China Builds Up Amphibious Forces
Aviation Week
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on May 20th, 2010
There has been significant soul-searching over the past year in the U.S. Defense Department about the viability of the Marine Corps’ amphibious assault mission, tied to the controversy over the troubled General Dynamics Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) program. No such doubts about amphibious operations exist in China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Since the early 1990s, the PLA has developed and deployed two generations of amphibious armored assault vehicles, and more recently developed a range of specialized amphibious assault and support systems. While this effort is largely focused on preparing for a possible invasion of Taiwan, it will also help the PLA undertake long-distance amphibious assault operations as the PLA Navy (PLAN) builds a number of large amphibious transport ships later this decade.

China’s Aviation Sector: Building Toward World Class Capabilities
Testimony for the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on China’s Emergent Military Aerospace and Commercial Aviation Capabilities
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on May 20th, 2010
Since the beginning of the latest phase of China’s military modernization following the 1989 Tiananmen Massacre, the Chinese Communist Party leadership has striven to build a world class aerospace sector as a major element of increasing China’s comprehensive national power.  This goal has been pursued through enormous targeted investments in technology, design expertise, materials, and education, with successive sectoral reorganizations.  A broad acquisition of foreign technology has used to accelerate modernization and has been critical in all areas of success.  Having set a goal to become militarily dominant in the realms of air and space, this decade will see the emergence of a modern Chinese 4th to 5th generation air force, their first large cargo transport aircraft, and potentially, their first commercially viable transport aircraft.  However, reaching this point has also been hugely difficult for China and especially for its aero engine sector where results are just beginning to be realized. Assuming continued heavy government support and success, by the 2020s these capabilities could form a core military and commercial air power projection capability for China.  Absent appropriate U.S. government and commercial investments, by the 2020s the U.S. military and commercial aerospace sector will find itself in an increasingly heated competition with China, which will have significant security implications for the United States. 

The Air Balance on the Taiwan Strait
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on February 21st, 2010
The advent of a PLA 5th generation fighter is but one element of a larger Chinese military buildup which is now challenging the viability of Washington’s policy of calibrated arms sales to Taiwan.  Since coming to power in 2008 Taiwanese President Ma Ying jeou and other Taiwanese leaders have called on China to remove threatening missile more than ten times, to which China has responded by accelerating its military buildup.  A calibrated approach, such as continuing to sell Taipei even more advanced aircraft, like the 5th generation Lockheed-Martin F-35, may not be enough to sustain deterrence.  Future PLA space warfare capabilities, a growing nuclear arsenal, anti-ship ballistic missiles, increasing numbers of advanced submarines and a growing amphibious invasion capability pose a far greater threat to Taiwan and to the future ability of U.S. forces to provide a sufficient additional deterrent.   It may be overdue that Washington expands its definition of a “defensive” weapon for Taiwan as it increases investments  in new U.S. military capabilities that sustain Washington’s larger capacity to deter Chinese aggression.