Iran in Latin America: Threat or Axis of Annoyance?

Senior Fellow Douglas Farah's analysis of the debate over the level of threat posed by Iran's expanding diplomatic, trade and military presence in Latin America, and its stated ambition to continue to broaden these ties.read more

Chinese Naval Modernization: Altering the Balance of Power

Richard Fisher details China's naval modernization program and the potential impacts on U.S. interests in the Western Pacific.read more

Reports

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Recent Trends in China’s Missile and Strategic Strike Forces
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 1st, 2016
In late-2016 China’s missile forces are being influenced by three major trends. First is the formation of the new People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) in late 2015 as a result of sweeping restructuring of PLA focused on increasing jointness, accompanied by an increase in the nuclear forces of the PLA Navy (PLAN) and PLA Air Force (PLAAF). A second and ongoing trend has been the incorporation of new types and variants of missile systems plus new nuclear missile submarines (SSBNs) and bombers. Third, China is moving toward the creation of a national missile defense and anti-satellite (ASAT) system that may require cooperation between the SRF, the new Strategic Support Force (PLASSF) and the PLAAF.While there is uncertainty regarding the actual current number of PLA strategic missiles, the introduction of multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and future submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) indicates warhead numbers could soon be increasing more rapidly. By the mid-2020s, however, the PLA could have a strategic strike capability comprising a larger number of nuclear missiles, new non-nuclear Prompt Global Strike (PGS) systems, intermediate and medium range nuclear and non-nuclear missiles, nuclear and non-nuclear short range ballistic missiles, a variety of strategic cruise missiles that are also carried by bombers and submarines, plus anti-missile and anti-satellite missiles.read more
Toward A New Armed Peace
How Washington Can Best Deter China and Support Taiwan’s Maritime Peace Initiatives
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on January 25th, 2016
The Republic of China on Taiwan’s central strategic position on the Western Pacific periphery, its close proximity to the disputed islands of the East China Sea, and its possession of the largest natural island in the disputed Spratly Island Group of the South China Sea, provide just cause for an active Taiwan government role in the pursuit of peaceful dispute resolution in those regions. Taiwan’s direct security interest in playing such an active role is also clear. Chinese military control of the East China Sea and the South China Sea would allow the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to better threaten Taiwan and greatly complicate the ability of the United States, Japan and the Philippines to deter Chinese aggression. In the East China Sea and the South China Sea, China’s goal is to seek increasing military dominance and eventual control. This goal is not merely reactive to recent incidents such as Japan’s September 2012 purchase of the Senkaku/Daiyoutai Islands. China has had a decades-long strategy for seeking control of these regions to further envelop Taiwan militarily, protect its seaborne nuclear forces, ensure geostrategic access for future global/space power projection forces, and to diminish the U.S.-led military alliance and cooperation networks in Asia. read more
China's Continued Quest for Space Dominance
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on December 21st, 2015
Richard Fisher provides a briefing on China's Continued Quest for Space Dominance.read more
Taiwan's Options for Integrated Air and Missile Defense
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on October 6th, 2015
Richard Fisher briefs the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council on Taiwan's Options for Integrated Air and Missile Defense.read more
The Murder of Alberto Nisman
How the government of Cristina Fernández de Kircherner created the environment for a perfect crime
by Douglas Farah

Published on March 16th, 2015
Now available in Spanish.  Whether or not the Fernández de Kirchner government had a direct hand in Nisman’s killing, it deliberately and systematically created the environment in which the assassination could take place with impunity, and the integrity of the justice system is compromised.read more
Through The Looking Glass
The Fernández de Kirchner government’s narco corruption
by Douglas Farah

Published on October 18th, 2014
This paper is the fourth in a series of IASC studies and updates on the deteriorating situation in Argentina, part of a broader survey of corruption and transnational organized crime in Latin America. It includes extensive studies on Bolivia, Ecuador and the criminalized nature of the Bolivarian Alliance. This paper is an update on drug trafficking and corruption in the Fernández de Kirchner government, focusing on the investigation of precursor chemicals that has led to the indictment of some of the president’s closest associates. It also looks at the president’s increasingly hostility toward the United States. In the 18 months since we began this series the situation has deteriorated significantly, due to the economic and social policies evolving over that period. What has added to the deepening sense of crisis is the general lack of leadership by the president and the growing drug-related scandals. The failed economic policies, coupled with the disregard for law enforcement likely mean that the situation will get worse before it gets better. read more
Will It Be Possible To Deter China Into The 2020s?
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on July 24th, 2014
China’s broad and accelerating modernization of its military forces, at first seeking to dominate the East Asian region and then to project power globally, sparks considerable anxiety over whether the United States, either alone or with allied support, can continue to deter China from using force to change what Beijing views as an unfavorable “status quo.” This anxiety is compounded by the fact that China is not just an emerging military superpower, but is also gaining economic superpower status which in the view of many helps to legitimize its quest for greater military power. China has used its military and economic power to threaten and constrain Taiwan in the 1990s and 2000s and continues to accumulate forces and capabilities for attacking or invading the island democracy. In the current decade China may decide it can use limited force against Japan and the Philippines to enforce maritime area claims, which would damage Washington’s regional military leadership while prompting many states to consider strategic deterrent capabilities. Into the 2020s and beyond it will no longer be a question of deterring Chinese military might in Asia alone, but also those Chinese forces that can be deployed globally to influence conflicts that would affect Western or democratic interests.read more
Potential Indicators of China’s Next Generation Nuclear Submarines
by Richard Fisher, Jr.

Published on June 30th, 2014
While China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has gradually embraced transparency in many spheres of its military endeavors, there are a large number of issues and programs that remain closely guarded and one of these is its future nuclear submarines. However, one popular tool the PLA uses to convey limited information about some military programs is to use models. A large outdoor model of a next generation nuclear attack submarine (SSN) has appeared at the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Submarine Academy in Qingdao, China. The role of this model may simply be to inspire the Academy’s students, but it may signify a larger personnel investment by the PLAN to prepare for its next generation submarines, as it may also offer some indications about a new class of SSN.read more
The Advance of Radical Populist Doctrine in Latin America
How The Bolivarian Alliance is Remaking Militaries, Dismantling Democracy and Combating the Empire
by Douglas Farah

Published on May 23rd, 2014
There is growing concern in policy circles across the political spectrum over the declining ability of the United States to effectively influence events in faraway places such as the Ukraine, Syria, Afghanistan, Nigeria and elsewhere. Yet far less attention has been paid to the significant loss of influence much closer to home – Latin America, where there is a concerted effort by radical self-proclaimed socialist and populist governments to erase any trace of U.S. military and security doctrine, weaken economic and cultural ties, and portray any and all U.S. policy decisions as seeking to recolonize Latin America. U.S. influence is being replaced by a lethal doctrine of asymmetrical warfare, inspired by authoritarian governments seeking perpetual power and nurtured by Iran. Through an interlocking and rapidly expanding network of official websites, publishing houses, think tanks and military academies, the governments of Argentina, Cuba and Venezuela have created a dominant narrative that identifies the United States as the primary threat to Latin America. (Spanish translation now available)read more
One Step Forward, Two Steps Back
Argentina Tangos Toward Collapse
by Douglas Farah

Published on March 2nd, 2014
While the government of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner has recently taken a few modest steps toward economic rationality, the nation is in a free fall, with expanding drug trafficking, massive corruption and economic mismanagement.read more
Total Records: 37
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